A gift to my children

Saudações, leitores e leitoras!

Hoje vou falar sobre a minha primeira leitura em inglês deste glorioso ano de 2022: A gift to my children, de Jim Rogers.

Antes, falemos sobre o autor. Jim Rogers é um investidor americano, que nos anos 1970 criou um fundo de investimento, o Quantum Fund. Naquela década, o fundo rendeu 4.200%, enquanto o S&P cresceu pouco menos de 47%. Depois de fazer tanta grana, ele se aposentou aos 37 anos e começou a realizar seus sonhos, dentre eles, uma viagem de moto ao redor do mundo, percorrendo mais de 100 mil quilômetros.

Neste livro escrito em 2009, dedicado as suas duas filhas Happy e Baby-Bee, ele lista conselhos que gostaria de ter ouvido dos seus pais, e que o teriam ajudado muito durante sua vida.

O livro é muito bom. Claro, tem alguns conselhos que só fazem sentido para quem é americano, ou para quem é filho de um cara muito rico, mas dá para relevar, afinal, ele escreveu o livro baseado na vivência dele. E ele é um americano, muito rico e que viajou o mundo.

Mas boa parte dos conselhos podem ser aproveitados por qualquer um. Abaixo, alguns destaques que fiz no livro:

Where should a person start in order to be successful? The answer is easy: Try as many things as you can, then pursue the one (or two, or three) about which you’re passionate.

“There is always something you can be doing”.

In investing, as in life, the small details often spell the difference between success and failure. So you must be attentive!

You must go to the country yourself and see, for example, if there is a currency black market. If one exists, then you know that the country has problems. Black market exchange rates exist only when the government is imposing artificial controls. The difference in parity  between the official currency rate and the black market rate indicates the gravity of the problem in that nation. It is symptomatic. The higher the fever, the worse the sickness; in other words, the greater the gap in parity, the deeper the problem.

And as U.S. Army general George Patton once put it, “If everyone is thinking the same thing, someone is not thinking.”

More bad news from the Russian front: Parts of Russia itself are straining to gain independence, as are parts of other former Soviet republics. The Ukraine, for example, could split at any time. Some will disagree with me, but I always point to the example of Chechnya, a small republic, about the size of Connecticut, in southern Russia. The Red Army has been trying to control Chechnya’s population of only one and a half million for about fifteen years, with little success. What more do you need to know? There is no Red Army anymore—certainly not one that can hold together the country’s vast expanses.

As you get older and read history, you will learn that war has never been good for any nation, even the ones that “win.” If you are ever in a country that descends into war, I suggest you leave until it is over. Truth is always the first casualty of war, so you need to get your distance.

Looking back upon history is an invaluable way to learn how to analyze trends. And better still, it teaches you how to anticipate future changes.

Be extremely doubtful when you have people proclaiming, “It’s different this time.”

Again, study history very carefully. Learn precisely what happened and what did not. This will help you understand what is about to happen in the world.

Japan had enjoyed a huge bubble in the 1980s. When it burst, in 1990, prices collapsed, sending the economy tumbling. Regrettably, the government and the Bank of Japan kept trying to halt the natural, cleansing effects of this recession by propping up many of the
companies in trouble. Just as a forest fire serves to clear out deadwood and underbrush so that the forest can renew itself, recessions help to ensure healthy future growth. In Japan, businesses that should have been liquidated became “zombie companies,” surviving, albeit
barely, on the government’s artificial support.

Regardless of your perspective, refusing to accept the change is like swimming against the current of a thundering river. Try to resist the force, and you will not last very long.

Predictions: Iraq will ultimately divide according to religious sects into three or four countries. Canada, Russia, India, Brazil, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo may also split up. An understanding of history and an astute reading of the current course of events suggest that such developments are inevitable—and natural. Not one country in existence today has had the same borders and government for as long as two hundred years. The world will continue changing.

When you see so many people being unrealistic, stop and make an objective assessment of the supply-and-demand equation. Bearing in mind this basic principle will bring you that much closer to success.

Throughout history, many countries have tried debasing their currency as a way to revive the economy by making it a bit more competitive. It has never worked over the long run or even intermediately. It can work in the short term, but not always. Only quality and service work over time.

Always buy quality products. They last longer and retain more value.

Beware of all politicians everywhere.

Never ask someone how much money he or she makes, or how much something costs. Never tell someone how much your things cost. Never discuss how much money you make or have.

Finally, and importantly, avoid in-office romances. They usually end in personal and professional disaster for one or both parties.

Achei um livro bem tranquilo de ler, mesmo não sendo um falante fluente de inglês. Algumas palavras não conhecia, mas nada que um dicionário não resolva.

O livro não tem versão em Português. O livro em inglês pode ser encontrado na Amazon, no link: https://amzn.to/3werYht

Alguém aí já leu? Deixa sua opinião nos comentários.


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